In a contest that served as the first major electoral litmus test for the new government, the Labour party has successfully defended the Holborn and St Pancras seat, fending off a determined challenge from the Green party. The by-election, triggered by the shock resignation of former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer in September, has provided Prime Minister Andy Burnham with a much-needed victory, signaling a stabilization of public support after a turbulent transition period in Downing Street.
Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali secured the constituency with 12,292 votes, defeating Green party leader Zack Polanski, who polled 8,928 votes. While the result confirms Labour’s enduring strength in one of its traditional strongholds, the campaign highlighted shifting dynamics on the left of British politics and a notable decline in voter turnout, which dropped to 38.7%—the lowest for any English by-election in the current parliament.
A High-Stakes Battle for the Left
The significance of this by-election cannot be overstated. With Starmer’s departure, the seat of Holborn and St Pancras—an area characterized by a high concentration of younger voters, renters, and a diverse, multicultural demographic—became a focal point for the Green party’s ambitions.
Under the leadership of Zack Polanski, the Greens sought to frame the contest as a referendum on the new government’s commitment to radical, progressive change. By positioning themselves as a more authentic alternative to the Labour party on issues such as rent controls, the nationalization of water companies, and aggressive climate action, the Greens managed to turn what was once a comfortable Labour fortress into a marginal, albeit safely defended, constituency.
For the Labour leadership, the result serves as a relief. It reinforces internal polling suggesting that Prime Minister Andy Burnham has begun to recover public trust lost during the final, waning months of Starmer’s premiership. However, the margin of victory and the dip in total votes cast suggest that the party cannot afford complacency.
Chronology of the Campaign
The campaign was marked by intense door-to-door efforts and a series of high-profile visits from national party figures.
- September 1: Sir Keir Starmer announces his resignation as an MP, setting the stage for the by-election.
- Mid-September: The Green party identifies the seat as a prime target, with Zack Polanski launching a campaign centered on "eco-populist" values.
- Late September: Internal division rocks the Green party following a conference motion that labeled "Zionism as racism." While Polanski attempted to maintain a focus on local issues, the national debate inevitably bled into the by-election narrative.
- October 8: Polls open across the constituency. Despite the high visibility of the candidates, voter apathy becomes apparent with the final turnout figure hitting a record low of 38.7%.
- October 9: Results are declared in the early hours, confirming a Labour hold.
Supporting Data and Polling Analysis
The statistics from the count provide a nuanced view of the political landscape. Sagal Abdi-Wali’s 45.17% vote share represents a 3.75% decline compared to the 2024 general election. Conversely, the Green party saw a significant jump in vote share, rising to 32.81%.
However, polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has urged caution regarding the Greens’ "success" narrative. In an analysis for The Times, Curtice argued that the Green party’s claim of a "22% rise" is an example of "paltering"—a technical truth that obscures a broader reality.
"The Greens can make their ‘trebling’ claim only because the left-wing vote two years ago was divided between the Greens and an independent candidate, Andrew Feinstein," Curtice noted. When the historical left-wing vote is aggregated, the actual gain for the Greens is significantly smaller than the party’s press releases suggest. Furthermore, the overall volume of votes for the left in the constituency actually fell by over 2,000 compared to the 2024 general election, suggesting that the "Green surge" was partly a consolidation of existing anti-establishment sentiment rather than an explosion of new support.
Official Responses and Internal Tensions
The immediate aftermath of the result saw both parties scrambling to frame the outcome in their favor.
The Labour Perspective
Newly elected MP Sagal Abdi-Wali framed her victory as a win for diversity and a testament to the resilience of the community. In her acceptance speech at the Camden council headquarters, she stated: "I hope this moment also says something about who gets to belong. For people who look like me, I hope they see themselves reflected in this place."
Labour party chair Bridget Phillipson echoed this sentiment, telling Sky News that the result showed the government had "got off to an incredibly strong start" and that their "message of hope is really cutting through."
The Green Perspective
For Zack Polanski, the result was a "close second" that demonstrated the party’s newfound status as a genuine electoral threat. Despite the loss, he remains defiant regarding his leadership. Speaking on Sky News, Polanski brushed off concerns about his future, stating, "Yes, absolutely, that’s what leaders do," when asked if he intended to stay on.
However, the result has not silenced his critics. Former Green party leader Caroline Lucas, speaking on BBC Newsnight, was notably critical of Polanski’s failure to participate in the party’s controversial Zionism vote on the eve of the election. "He should have been there and he should have voted," she said, adding that while she would not call for his resignation, the "jury is out" on whether he can provide the necessary leadership for the party.
Polanski defended his absence, arguing that his priority was the campaign on the ground. He also dismissed the backlash regarding the "Zionism is racism" motion as "absurd," emphasizing the necessity of separating antisemitism from legitimate criticism of the Israeli government.
Broader Implications
The Holborn and St Pancras by-election is a snapshot of a political system in flux. For the Labour party, the victory is a stabilization mechanism. It suggests that while the "Burnham bounce" is real, the party is still contending with a fragmented left-wing vote that is increasingly willing to look toward the Greens for more radical policy agendas, particularly on housing and the climate.
For the Green party, the result is a double-edged sword. While they have proven their ability to mobilize in urban centers, the lack of a decisive win and the ongoing internal strife over ideological stances (such as the Zionism motion) present a challenge to their long-term growth. The party’s grassroots structure, while a point of pride for Polanski, is now under pressure to prove that it can handle the scrutiny of a national party that aspires to major parliamentary representation.
Finally, the poor turnout of 38.7% serves as a warning to all parties. It suggests that, despite the high-stakes rhetoric from both Labour and the Greens, a significant portion of the electorate remains disengaged from the Westminster process. As the government looks toward its next legislative agenda, the task of reconnecting with this disillusioned cohort will be as important as any individual by-election win.
The outcome in Holborn and St Pancras has effectively drawn a line under the immediate transition following the 2026 leadership change. The path forward for both the government and the opposition will now depend on whether they can translate the rhetoric of "real change" and "hope" into tangible improvements for a public that is clearly waiting to be convinced.
