In the high-stakes world of supply chain management, the "routing guide" is often the first line of defense against market volatility. Yet, for years, shippers have operated with limited visibility into the actual financial impact of their routing guide failures. FreightWaves’ Sonar platform has officially launched a suite of three new truckload dataset groups designed to change that, providing shippers with a transparent, data-driven benchmark for the hidden costs of backup coverage and the realities of modern freight procurement.
These indices—Routing Guide Premiums, Routing Guide Acceptance Share, and Contract Rate Change Direction—represent a significant leap forward in market intelligence. By tracking shipper-to-provider costs, these metrics strip away the noise of carrier operating expenses and broker margins, offering a pure look at what happens when the primary tender fails and the market takes over.
The Mechanics of Market Failure: Understanding the New Indices
The introduction of these datasets comes at a pivotal moment in the logistics cycle. As the market experiences tightening capacity and shifting rate environments, the reliance on backup providers has become more than a logistical necessity—it has become a significant budgetary line item.
1. Routing Guide Premiums (RGP2.USA and RGP3.USA)
This index measures the median percent change in "all-in" costs when a load is accepted on the second or third-plus tender, compared to the first. Currently, the second tender is commanding a 9.25% premium, notably higher than the 12-month average of 8.77%. The third-plus tender is even more punishing, sitting at a 19.84% premium—effectively doubling the cost penalty of the second-tender failure. These figures underscore a stark reality: when a primary carrier rejects a load, the financial friction of securing backup capacity is compounding rapidly.
2. Routing Guide Acceptance Share (RGAS1, 2, and 3 USA)
This metric provides the "who, what, and where" of tender acceptance, tracking the success rates from the first tender through the fifth and beyond. Currently, first-tender acceptance sits at 89.29%, a significant retreat from the 93% benchmark seen last November. With the second position accounting for 6.67% of accepted loads and the third-plus tier holding at 4.16%, it is clear that freight is "cascading" deeper into routing guides than it has in recent history.
3. Contract Rate Change Direction (CRCD.USA)
Perhaps the most telling indicator for long-term strategic planning, the CRCD index measures the average percentage change between new and previous contract base rates. By filtering out short-term fluctuations and focusing on rates stable for at least 90 days, Sonar provides a clear picture of base rate inflation. The current reading of 13.11% is a bellwether for the industry, indicating that new contracts are being reset at prices significantly higher than their predecessors.
A Chronological Perspective: From Deflation to Double-Digit Hikes
To understand the current state of the freight market, one must view these indices through the lens of recent history. The trajectory of the Contract Rate Change Direction (CRCD) index tells a compelling story of an industry in transition.
- 2023: The Deflationary Bottom: In the spring of 2023, the industry was in the midst of a sustained rate decline. Contract rates were posting negative growth, as shippers capitalized on a soft market to aggressively reset their transportation costs downward.
- 2024: The Turning Point: By mid-2024, the narrative began to shift. The negative pressure on rates evaporated, and the market began to turn. Contract rate changes moved into positive territory, marking the beginning of a cycle where carriers regained leverage.
- 2025: The Acceleration: Throughout 2025, the market momentum solidified. Contract rates began to climb, moving from the 3%–6% range seen earlier in the year toward the double-digit increases that define the current landscape.
- 2026: The Current Reality: We are currently witnessing the most aggressive repricing environment since 2022. The 13.11% reading is nearly four times the five-year average of 3.47%. This represents a fundamental shift in the cost of moving goods, with shippers facing sustained upward pressure on their base budgets that they have not seen in over half a decade.
Data-Driven Insights: The "Cascading" Effect
The data suggests that the issue is not merely market volatility, but a systemic challenge within how shippers manage their routing guides. Julie Van de Kamp, a key voice in the development of these metrics, highlights the importance of distinguishing between market-wide issues and internal routing guide inefficiencies.
"If your first tender acceptance is slipping faster than the national number, then there’s a problem in your routing guide, not just with the market," Van de Kamp noted. This is a critical distinction for logistics managers. If a shipper’s primary acceptance is significantly lower than the 89.29% national average, it suggests that their carrier mix, contract pricing, or operational requirements are misaligned with current market realities.
The "cascade" effect—where freight moves from the primary carrier to secondary and tertiary options—is the primary driver of cost inflation. Because each step down the tender list typically incurs a higher cost, the efficiency of the first tender is the most important variable in the total landed cost of freight. When that efficiency slips, the financial impact is immediate and measurable through the RGP indices.
Implications for Strategic Procurement
For shippers, these new Sonar indices serve as more than just a reporting tool; they are a diagnostic framework. The ability to measure the "cost of the failure" allows for three major strategic shifts:
- Optimization of Routing Guides: Shippers can now use RGP data to identify which lanes or carriers are most prone to failure and, more importantly, what the financial impact of those failures is. This allows for data-backed decisions on whether to re-bid a lane or adjust incumbent carrier allocations.
- Budgeting for Backup Coverage: Instead of estimating backup costs, companies can now use real-time market data to build more accurate contingency budgets. Understanding that a third-tender failure carries a ~20% premium allows for more precise financial forecasting.
- Enhanced Negotiation Power: The Contract Rate Change Direction index provides a neutral, third-party benchmark for rate negotiations. When carriers request rate hikes, shippers now have a clear understanding of where the broader market sits, allowing for more evidence-based discussions rather than relying on anecdotal evidence.
Navigating the Future: The Role of Technology
The release of these datasets on the Sonar platform comes at a time when the industry is increasingly looking toward the "Future of Freight" (F3). As supply chains become more complex, the reliance on real-time, high-fidelity data will be the defining factor between companies that struggle with volatility and those that thrive in it.
The upcoming F3: Future of Freight Festival and the associated Brokerage Compliance Symposium in Chattanooga underscore the industry’s commitment to modernization. As regulatory requirements, fraud exposure, and market volatility continue to evolve, tools like the Sonar indices provide the transparency necessary to navigate the path forward.
Conclusion
The freight market is no longer a "black box" where costs are hidden in the failures of routing guides. With these new indices, the reality of contract resets and tender performance is now visible, measurable, and actionable. Shippers who leverage this data to tighten their procurement strategies will find themselves in a significantly stronger position than those relying on legacy assumptions. As we look toward the end of 2026 and beyond, the ability to turn market data into actionable insights will not just be a competitive advantage—it will be a prerequisite for operational success in the modern, high-velocity supply chain.
